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Repairable Systems Monte Carlo Utility

Repairable Systems SimuMatic Example

SimuMatic

RGA's Repairable Systems SimuMatic tool generates multiple data sets using Monte Carlo simulation. It then analyzes each data set individually (e.g., to find the instantaneous MTBF at a specified time) and also analyzes the group of data sets as a whole (i.e., it shows the average and median parameter values for all data sets).

To access the utility, choose Home > Insert > Repairable Systems SimuMatic.

The setup window will appear. Follow the steps outlined below to generate and analyze the simulated data sets.

  1. On the Main tab of the window, select a data type and time units in the Data Type area. In the Parameters area, enter the beta and lambda values for the Crow-AMSAA model that will be used to generate the data set.

In the Data Sets / Points area, enter the following information:

  1. On the Settings tab, specify how you want to generate the data set and where you want the data to be stored.

    • Select the Use Seed check box if you would like to set a consistent starting point from which the random numbers will be generated. Using the same seed value and keeping all other settings the same will allow you to replicate your results.

    • In the Math Precision area, enter the number of decimal places that will be used for each simulated data point. (This does not affect the precision used in the calculated parameters and other results.)

  2. On the Analysis tab, enter the bounds that will be shown in the SimuMatic plots. For example, if you enter 90, then the plots will show 90% one-sided upper and 90% one-sided lower confidence bounds.

  3. On the Test Design tab, select the Calculate Target Time check box if you wish to a) calculate the time at which the demonstrated MTBF reaches a certain value and b) mark the lower confidence bound on this value on the instantaneous MTBF vs. time plot. For example, if you wanted to know the time for an instantaneous MTBF of 1,000 hours, then you would enter 1,000 in the Instantaneous MTBF field. To mark the 90% lower confidence bound on this value in the IMTBF vs. time plot, you'd enter 90 in the Lower 1-sided Confidence Level field.

  4. On the Results tab, specify the metrics that will be calculated.

  1. Click the Generate button to create and analyze the data. The results will be displayed in the Repairable Systems SimuMatic folio.

 

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